Graded: Ten Questions for 2023

With 2023 nearly over, it is time to look back on Charlie Minato’s Ten Questions for 2023, an annual post where he identifies 10 of the most pressing questions he feels are facing the premium cigar industry in the coming year, and then makes a prediction as to the answers to those questions.

As usual, I’m expecting a good number of hits, a couple of misses, and a few that will be tough to grade, but that certainly won’t stop me from trying. As Yogi Berra said, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future, so let’s see how Charlie did in 2023.

1. Where will PCA 2024 take place?

Prediction: I think the likeliest scenario is to run it back at the Venetian in 2024.

Well, at least Charlie got the city correct, but that wasn’t part of the prediction. After floating ideas of New Orleans in May or Las Vegas in July, the Premium Cigar Association announced it would be at the Las Vegas Convention Center, but in late March, making for both a change in the traditional days when the show is held as well as what has become the default venue in recent years.

Now the question—quite literally—is what will the reaction from this shift be? Because of some logistical issues, it creates a number of other questions and concerns, such as how many new products will be shown off, when they will ship, and whether this moves the needle not just for retailer attendance but for retailer purchasing at the show.

Grade: D-.

2. How many companies with factories in Nicaragua open up factories in Honduras?

Prediction: At least two notable cigar companies that make cigars in Estelí will announce they are planning new factories in Honduras.

From what I can tell, not a single company that makes cigars announced that they are planning new factories in Honduras. I put announced in italics because it has become increasingly well-known that My Father Cigars has some sort of building and operation in Honduras, but it has never announced what it was.

Grade: F.

3. Are we done with cigar NFTs?

Prediction: No, we are not. There will be at least more cigar NFT project that goes live beyond the Smoke Inn one.

Charlie referenced the Anarchy NFT released by Tatuaje and Smoke Inn in August that had been announced in 2022, and by all accounts, did seemingly well. The six NFTs and their related items sold for between $76,001 and $100,000 each, with four right around the $82,000 mark.

But Charlie said there would be at least one more cigar NFT project that goes live this year, an important qualifier, as Casdagli announced The Blockchainsmoker project in February, but the project does not seem to have launched as the website still speaks in future tense terms, references the NFT mint happening in Q2 of 2023, and offers no way to purchase the NFTs.

While we weren’t done with NFTs in 2023, the one other hasn’t appeared to launch, which keeps Charlie’s prediction from getting full credit.

Grade: B

4. When will the Arturo Fuente/Padrón Legends ship?

Prediction: I’ll be optimistic and say that it ships around Father’s Day.

I love an optimist, but this one missed pretty badly. That said, I don’t know if picking a date out of a hat would have produced any more accurate of a prediction since the Legends project has still not yet shipped, and as of right now not only do we still not know when it will ship, how much it will cost, or how many they will be beyond roughly 2,000 humidors. in December, the two companies announced that damage during the shipping process pushed the project into 2024.

Charlie has another prediction about when it will ship in Ten Questions for 2024, place your bets accordingly.

Grade: F.

5. What’s the top headline related to flavored cigars in 2023?

Prediction: The largest story regarding flavored tobacco in 2023 is a state not named New York banning the sale of most flavored tobacco products.

In terms of the largest story of 2023 regarding flavored tobacco, I think the winner is that the White House delayed the announcement of FDA’s new rules for flavored cigars and menthol cigarettes into 2024, with speculation that the announcement might not get made at all given that it is a presidential election year.

Beyond that, Ohio was one of the more interesting states to watch as the governor and legislature continue their battle over whether or not cities and local municipalities should be allowed to enact their own tobacco laws, such as a ban on flavored tobacco sales. Currently, the House has overridden the governor’s veto with the Senate yet to vote on it. If the veto is overridden, cities will be prohibited from passing their own bans and regulations on tobacco and will have to follow state law.

Finally, cities in Maine continued their patchwork approach to creating a ban on flavored tobacco sales, as Falmouth became the sixth city in the state to pass a ban. The state legislature tabled a proposed ban over the summer.

Once again, flavored tobacco is an issue that gets carried over into Ten Questions for 2024.

6. How does Illusione’s makeover go?

I’m not going to make a prediction because I don’t know how it would be judged. Illusione makes good cigars and I think that wins out.

So with no prediction, this one’s not going to get a grade. I don’t know Illusione’s numbers, and the industry doesn’t compile or disclose sales numbers from retailers. I can’t say that I’ve heard anything drastic one way or another, so I have to assume that fans of the brands are still smoking them, stores that sell them well are still doing so, and the company is still making good cigars.

7. What’s the state of Cuban cigars in 2023?

Prediction: Not good.

I really should have asked Charlie to define who the state of Cuban cigars in 2023 is not good for, but in some ways that might not have mattered all that much. Thinking about Cuban cigars in 2023, the word expensive is the one that comes to mind first, followed by the usual issues with limited availability. The other challenging aspect with answering this question is that it’s hard if not impossible to get an honest answer from those in the know as they seemingly don’t want to knock Habanos S.A. in any way.

In terms of the availability to reasonably priced regular production cigars and even premium-priced limited editions, it certainly doesn’t seem like a great moment for Cuban cigars. But more concerningly, I don’t know how it changes without some major outside investment, which doesn’t seem likely to happen.

Grade: A.

8. Does anyone try to make their own Cohiba?

Prediction: I don’t think anyone will try in earnest. The threat of lawsuits and further repercussions from STG is probably enough to scare off most people from trying this.

This was one of the more out-there questions that I can remember Charlie asking, especially given where the legal process was regarding the Cohiba trademark in the U.S., and as he noted, the potential ramifications a company might face for poking the bear that is Scandinavian Tobacco Group by creating another Cohiba. By all accounts there was no company that tried to launch its own Cohiba while STG continued its trademark battle with Cubatabaco.

Grade: A.

9. Can La Aurora USA Make a Difference?

Prediction: La Aurora will be in more stores and there will be new lines more geared to the American market, but an AGANORSA Leaf-style makeover is not on the horizon.

Ask me what I remember about La Aurora in 2023, and the first answer that comes to mind is the company’s booth at the 2023 PCA Convention & Trade Show, a very impressive space that, unfortunately, was located towards the back of the show floor, likely costing it some exposure, though it was named Attendee Choice Best in Show Large Booth. As for memories off the show floor, I can’t say I have many. I don’t come across the cigars anymore this year than I seem to in previous years, I don’t smoke more of them than I have in recent years, and the company hasn’t seemingly taken that big step forward. There were some new releases, but no more than seemingly in other years. If anything, 2023 seemed like more of a change that affects the internals of the company, so maybe 2024 will be the year when consumers really notice it.

Grade: B.

10. What does Judge Mehta do?

Prediction: Mehta rules to send it back to “square zero,” i.e. remand with vacating. Bonus predictions: The definition of “premium cigar” used is more or less the one that Mehta will use. The user fee refund lawsuit becomes a shitshow, though I’m guessing that’s a post-2023 thing.

This is one prediction where I am ecstatic that it came true, as in August 2023, Judge Mehta vacated FDA’s deeming regulations for premium cigars, and the definition of premium cigar that was proposed in August 2020 is the one that was used. And while I’m not quite willing to go so far as to call the user fee refunds process a shitshow, it doesn’t seem to be perfectly clear either. This article explains more, but the crux is that:

FDA has informed cigar companies and distributors that it does not intend—barring further relief—to assess user fees for “premium cigars” for FY23 Q4. However, some complications make this a less than straightforward process. This is mostly because FDA has no idea whether a cigar company is selling premium cigars, non-premium cigars or a mixture of both. For example, FDA does not know how many cigars Drew Estate sold that meet the definition of “premium” compared to the number of infused cigars, products that would not meet the definition.

It seems like this will carry over into 2024, as predicted, so a pretty solid prediction.

Grade: A.

Patrick Lagreid

I strive to capture the essence of a cigar and the people behind them in my work – every cigar you light up is the culmination of the work of countless people and often represents generations of struggle and stories. For me, it’s about so much more than the cigar – it’s about the story behind it, the experience of enjoying the work of artisans and the way that a good cigar can bring people together. In addition to my work with halfwheel, I’m the public address announcer for the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks during spring training, as well as for the Salt River Rafters of the Arizona Fall League, the WNBA's Phoenix Mercury and previously the Arizona Rattlers of the Indoor Football League. I also work in a number of roles for Major League Baseball, plus I'm a voice over artist. Prior to joining halfwheel, I covered the Phoenix and national cigar scene for Examiner.com, and was an editor for Cigar Snob magazine.