Eight Thoughts: What Trump’s 2024 Victory Means for the Cigar World

While I don’t believe there’s extensive data that would confirm this, Donald J. Trump’s sweeping victory in the 2024 presidential election is likely a popular outcome at most cigar shops around the country. Even before the growing gender divide in voting, cigar smokers were more likely to skew Republican, something that was almost certainly amplified with Tuesday’s election. Inside the cigar world, the American cigar industry definitely leans Republican. In fact, it’s probably more of a question of whether the support rises to a level of more than lean.

While Trump was almost certainly the choice of the majority of cigar smokers, it’s unlikely that cigars had much to do with it. Trump has proudly talked about never smoking. Furthermore, even a casual examination of how helpful Trump’s first term was to the cigar industry—or even the collective tobacco industry—would suggest a lot of squinting to come up with much positive direct action. There was a lot of deregulation, but I’m not sure there was a single instance of tobacco deregulation.

This election felt like the least consequential for the premium cigar industry in quite some time. While I was not writing about the cigar industry then, I think there’s a strong case that this might have been the least consequential since 2004. That is due to the success of Cigar Association of America et al. v. United States Food and Drug Administration et al., a federal lawsuit filed in 2016 by the Cigar Association of America, Cigar Rights of America and the Premium Cigar Association.

In 2022 and 2023, the cigar industry scored big victories in the case. Currently, the industry awaits a federal appeals court’s decision to determine the outcome of the lawsuit. If the Department of Justice’s appeal is unsuccessful, it will effectively mean that the FDA must restart the regulatory process for premium cigars, inevitably a multi-year process. Because of this, there wasn’t the same sort of “we need to vote for X so we can stop the FDA…” messaging that the industry has had like in years past. In fact, the aforementioned groups were pretty quiet leading up to the election and—at least as of midday Wednesday—I don’t believe I’ve seen any formal communication from the groups since the results became clear.

That said, here are some thoughts on what Trump’s second term could mean for the cigar world.

1. In Terms of Cigars, the First Term Was Meh at Best

Even with noted friend of the cigar industry Rudy Giuliani in his close orbit, there were no direct wins for the cigar industry in the four years of the first Trump administration. There was no sign the FDA had been told to exempt premium cigars, no relaxed regulation, not even getting e-cigarettes to pay user fees.

In fact, Trump signed into law a landmark achievement for the anti-tobacco folks: in late 2019, he signed a massive spending bill that included a provision increasing the minimum age to purchase tobacco to 21. To be clear, this was one part of a massive bill, but one of a few notable wins for the anti-tobacco groups during 2016-2020.

That said, Trump campaigned for the 2024 election with promises that his second term would be radically different than the first. While the core philosophies remain largely the same, the ideas are somewhat a bit different. Like all politicians, it is likely that Trump made bold promises that will, in totality, only partially come true. That is the nature of the world. However, I do wonder how serious Trump is about a trio of ideas, ones that, if implemented as presented, would be pretty surprising.

2. How Serious is Trump About: RFK Jr.?

During this campaign, Trump made even larger promises than his first two campaigns. Due to the generally unprecedented nature of Trump, it’s unclear what his political capital will actually look like in this term. That’s important because a lot of what Trump has proposed will involve getting Congress to go along with it. One of those things that will need some approval from part of Congress would be Robert Kennedy Jr.’s claim that Trump promised to be in control of the public health agency. Formally, that role is the secretary of Health and Human Services, a cabinet-level position that would require Senate confirmation.

Kennedy Jr. is known for his anti-vaccine, anti-fluoride and other positions against established modern medicine, but it’s unclear what his thoughts would be on tobacco regulation, which falls under the purview of HHS. This, oddly, could affect premium cigars. If the lawsuit’s appeal goes in the cigar industry’s favor, it doesn’t mean that cigars are permanently exempt. Rather, it means that FDA will be required to start the process over from square one, but only if it decides to do so. The White House could have some say in how much of a priority this will or won’t be.

One thing to keep in mind: during the first Trump administration, many of these roles were filled on an “acting” basis, which avoided the need for Senate confirmation. It’s unclear how prevalent that will be during the second Trump term.

3. How Serious is Trump About: Tariffs?

Trump has floated a 10 percent tariff on all imported products to the U.S. and a 60 percent tariff on products made in China.

Given the proposal’s seismic nature, it’s unclear what a final version would look like. However, a subgroup of the cigar industry is very concerned: the accessory companies.

Most cigar accessories—especially lighters and cutters—are made in China. A 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods would have major impacts on the U.S. economy that would likely render the direct impact on the cutter and lighter market irrelevant, but I know from talking to people at accessory companies that they are nervous. I don’t know if that means that a company might import more in preparation for tariffs, but I imagine it’s being considered, especially for some of the more expensive items like higher-priced lighters and electronic humidifiers.

4. How Serious is Trump About: Saving Vapes?

Following a meeting with a vape trade group, Trump wrote that he would “save Vaping again!” It’s unclear what this would mean, especially since his first term saw the introduction of more vaping regulations than the presidents before and after him. It’s also unclear as to what mechanisms would be needed to do any of this. While it is true that FDA is an executive agency, it is governed by rules other than simply what the White House says. Furthermore, any change to deregulate vapes would result in a lawsuit, and the plaintiffs will go venue shopping to find a sympathetic judge that could slow down the deregulation. My guess, based on his first term and the mixed industry support for doing so, is that reversing current vaping regulations is actually not high on the priority list. It certainly would seem unlikely that he’d be interested in making flavored vapes legal again, something that was made illegal during his first term.

It’s also important for cigar smokers to note that there are vaping advocates who are also staunchly opposed to tobacco products like cigars. It’s entirely possible that someone like that is guiding the administration’s thinking on the FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products, even if they aren’t serving as the head of CTP.

5. The Big Win: Menthols + Flavored Cigars

Update (Nov. 9, 2024) — Disclosure forms show that Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff pick, lobbied Congress earlier this year on Swisher’s behalf for “FDA regulations.” Wiles, the defacto campaign manager of Trump’s 2024 bid, will be one of the most powerful people in the White House and will have direct knowledge of what Swisher wants. The likelihood of a ban on flavored cigars seems incredibly small.

That save Vaping again! comment leads to what I suspect will be the one major direct win: flavored cigars and menthol cigarettes.

In April, the Biden administration halted planned bans on the sales of menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars. At the time, the decisions to table the proposals were believed to be based on the political concerns over doing so. As recently as last month, the Department of Justice told a federal court that the decision to do so was because the government needed more time to review the feedback to the proposals. I suspect if Harris won, this would have gotten enacted early in the first term to limit potential political damage for a 2024 reelection bid.

Halting this in its track seems like low-hanging fruit to a second Trump administration. Banning menthol cigarettes is a regulatory process that dates back to before Obama took office. There are wins for tobacco companies and retailers, both of which still make lots of money on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars. As with almost every part of tobacco regulation, this won’t be permanent, it’s just a delay until a future administration decides to pick this up.

6. What Does this Mean for Cuba?

Not much.

During the first Trump administration, he rolled back the relaxing of rules that came about during Obama’s second term. Biden didn’t reenact the Obama era rules, so the U.S.’s approach to Cuba hasn’t changed all that much. It’s still legal to go but with restrictions and Cuban cigars are illegal to sell or buy in the U.S., but things have changed a lot, especially from eight years ago.

The larger difference is what’s taken place in Cuba. Mass emigration from the island—between 10-18 percent of the population left between 2022 and 2023—has occurred. I’m a cigar blogger, neither an economist nor a sociologist, but my understanding is that those numbers are more than alarming for a nation. Today, Nov. 6, Cuba is currently facing a real natural disaster along with ongoing currency, energy and food crises. Beyond boosting his political cache with Cuban-Americans—not sure how much more there is to do here—it’s unclear whether Trump will care about Cuba in its current state. There just don’t seem to be many—or any—wins left to be had.

7. What Does this Mean for Nicaragua?

While Cuba might not face any new pressure from the U.S., Nicaragua is a different story. It’s actually profited from much of the Cuban migration.

Trump’s immigration policy will be stricter than what’s currently in place. It will be curious to see if he decides to go after what he considers to be the nations that facilitate illegal immigration to the U.S. While Mexico will get a large chunk of the blame, this is one area where Nicaragua could end up in the news.

Furthermore, Nicaragua’s pivot to China might produce even more hostile relations with the U.S. That said, if the first Trump administration were any guide, Nicaragua is not a priority.

8. Florida’s Marijuana Legalization Fails, So What About the Smoking Ban Proposal?

A Florida ballot measure that would have legalized recreational marijuana failed. Earlier this year, Sen. Joe Gruters, R-Sarasota, announced that if it passed, he would introduce a bill that would ban smoking in public. Presumably, that means this is dead, but Florida has increasingly cracked down on smoking in public, though cigars have gotten exemptions.